Ahead of the Election there was no shortage of “expert predictions” of what was likely to happen.
Not only did most of Wall Street get the outcome of the election completely wrong – they got the stock markets reaction wrong too.
Some may point to the Futures plunging -5% overnight as a sort of confirmation of their “sell-off” thesis, but it seems to me the majority of forecasts were based on what the market would do in the days following a Trump win.
Here’s a small sample of what Wall Street was saying ahead of the election.
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That’s just a tiny sampling of what most experts were saying.
The Wall Street consensus was “Hillary is certain to win – but if for some reason Trump does win, the stock market will fall hard“.
Based on the countless parade of experts wearing neckties I witnessed ahead of the election – I would say the consensus estimate for how much the market would drop in the days following a Trump victory was about -10%.
Very few stated the contrarian view – but it seemed obvious to me even before Halloween.
I was told to “lay off the catnip”
We all know what happened after the election – the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to new all-time highs in the following days.
By the end of the week many firms and talking heads were already changing their tune.
This Tweet basically sums up how it all went down.
So what happens from here?
Let’s wait to hear what the experts have to say.
