Take a look at January 20th on your daily SPX chart.
At the time it felt sort of like a “capitulation day” to me. The low print that day was 1812, which put the S&P 500 down -11.3% for the year at the low – on the 12th trading day of the year.
People were freaking out…
But I saw something on the Monthly chart – an analog I guess you could call it. I was looking at the January 2008 Monthly candle and it occurred to me that we might see something very similar.
So I sent out this Tweet…
I added today’s January Monthly close candle to the image to make it easy to compare.
Nice tail indeed…
You can sort of see the 10-month and 30-month moving averages poking at the candles from the left.
Go back and take a look at January 2008 on the Monthly chart with those moving averages and you might see what I saw.
All in all it was just a lucky guess I suppose.
Chalk it up to instincts.